Title Methodological Toolbox for Development of New Skill for Future Jobs
Project Number 2010-1-SE1-LEO05-04797
Product Type website
Marketing Text The Delphi methodology presents a proven method for conducting small and large scale researches by involving experts of any field needed and by taking advantage of the equality of opinion by all informers that are implicated. Delphi Methodology can handle a large amount of information by securely eliminating inputs that have nothing to offer and can derive many safe and valuable conclusions to be used by all stakeholders in business sectors and education.
The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi. The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments. The origins of the use of the Delphi method can be traced back in the works of the Olaf Helmer`s team from RAND Corporation. The Delphi method is the solution to the problems arising during the surveys that are mostly caused by the divergence in experts` opinions. The method allows to narrow down the experts` opinions and to work out the most commonly accepted conclusions. Its core function is the forecasting of the future, pursuant to the given experts` opinions. The aim of the Delphi method is: to organize a debate, to make a presentation and to elaborate the feedback from a questionnaire survey, and finally to achieve a common point of view. In other words, the method is used for communication and exchanging the opinions concerning the particular topic as well as for setting down the opinion about the future, and it is often used when the approximate data are not enough. The method is also useful while gathering the opinions from a wide group of experts and when there is no sufficient data concerning the future trends or when the open discussion on a forum is impossible because of various reasons. This method eliminates the domination of individuals and their influence on the others` opinions.
The use of the DELPHI method in the matter of matching new skills and competencies to new requirements from several business sectors will present valuable inputs since it can include the opinion of highly regarded experts in vocational training without the risk of concluding to a conclusion that is expressed from a well known expert alone. Groups from academic education, vocational education, business organizations and unions as well as opinion makers can be formed providing opinions that will be equally regarded in order to reach to the final conclusions while no view will be grounded. This is mainly why the Delphi Method can present the most efficient way to include as many views as possible in order to reach to a safe result.
The Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events. A group of experts exchange views, and each one individually gives estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who reviews the data and issues a summary report. The group members discuss and review the summary report individually, and give updated forecasts to the facilitator, who again reviews the material and issues a second report. This process continues until all participants reach a consensus.
The experts at each round have a full record of what forecasts other experts have made, but they do not know who made which forecast. Anonymity allows the experts to express their opinions freely, encourages openness and avoids admitting errors by revising earlier forecasts. The technique is an iterative process, and first aims to get a wide range of opinions from the group of experts. The results of the first round of questions, when summarized, provide the basis for the second round of questions. Results from the second round of questions feed into the third and final round.
The Delphi Process
Theoretically, the Delphi process can be continuously iterated until consensus is determined to have been achieved. However, we have to point out that three iterations are often sufficient to collect the needed information and to reach a consensus in most cases. The following provides insights for up to four iterations in order to assist those who decide to use the Delphi process as a data collection technique when it is determined that additional iterations beyond three are needed or valuable. At first we can see a more general view of the method implementation in rounds.
Area of application Curricula development in VET
Product Languages English